China's shrinking population, deaths beat births in France, negative net migration in the U.S. — and more
Demographic Digest for January 23, 2026
China’s population shrinks again—births at a modern low
Official figures show China’s population fell for a fourth straight year in 2025, with just 7.92 million births (down 17% YoY) and a record-low 5.63 births per 1,000 people.
Why it matters: Fewer young workers + rapid aging means structural growth headwinds and mounting pressure to redesign housing, care, and gender norms—cash incentives alone won’t do it.
Source: AP
France: deaths now outnumber births
For the first time since WWII, France recorded more deaths (651k) than births (645k) in 2025, even as total population edged up slightly on net migration.
Why it matters: The EU country long seen as a relative fertility bright spot is now squarely in demographic contraction territory, raising fiscal and workforce risks.
Source: Reuters
U.S. net migration likely turned negative in 2025
Economists updating mid-year estimates say the U.S. probably lost more immigrants than it gained last year (range –10,000 to –295,000).
Why it matters: With fertility stalled near 1.6, turning off population renewal shrinks the labor force and drags on growth—exactly when care demand is rising.
Source: Washington Post
Texas is now the top “donor” state of movers
New Census data show Texas supplied the most new residents to nine other states—even as it continued to grow itself.
Why it matters: The sunbelt isn’t a monolith; in- and out-flows are reshaping local housing markets, labor pools, and politics in real time.
Source: Washington Post
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